Windows 8 FUD

In my previous post I wrote about my first impressions of Windows 8. And I noted that first, it was a developer preview, so a lot was missing. And second, I was running it in a VM in VirtualBox, so the performance wasn’t optimal. And third, I wasn’t running it on a tablet.

Since then the Windows 8 Team have written a lot about what the new Windows 8 will have, and what it won’t. Their most recent post by team boss, Steven Sinofsky, was all about building Windows 8 for ARM processors.

A few things stand out from that post.With a few exceptions, Windows 8 on ARM will be a Metro based OS. Sinofsky said that the Windows desktop will be on ARM machines but there will be few application running on it. Explorer, and some Office 15 applications, Word, Excel, Powerpoint and One Note. You will not be able to install win32 applications onto an ARM machine.

Windows 8 on ARM will look and feel the same as Windows 8 on x86/64 Intel or AMD chip powered pcs. Except for the lack of support for the installation of win32 apps.

This has led to a lot of complaining from the (mostly) development community. Read some of the comments to Sinofsky’s post to see the response.

But the reality is this. The current tablet market is dominated by Apple. The IPad has taken off and has far surpassed the Mac in sales. Apple sold over 11 million IPads in the 4th quarter of last financial year. Gartner predicts IPad sales of 150 million in 2015.

Clearly, Apple, with its IPad, is the major player in the tablet market. And Microsoft wants to change that. That is good news for us. Whether you are an IPad, Android or Microsoft user, any competition in the market means better products available for all of us.

Apple has gone the route of using different operating systems on its desktop/laptop computers than on its tablets. The Mac runs OS X, the tablet runs iOS. They look very different, and the user experience is very different.

Microsoft wants to use the same operating system on tablets, laptops and desktops – Windows 8. Which is the best option? I don’t know. I don’t think anyone really knows – the market will tell us.

Unfortunately, with ARM, it is impossible from a technical standpoint, to have an identical experience to the Intel/AMD x86/64. Sinofsky explains why in his post. Perhaps impossible is to strong a word. But to put an identical os on ARM would mean compromises in other ares that Microsoft are not prepared to make. And this has led to complaints. The biggest being that the only applications that can be installed on an ARM device are Metro apps and they have to be installed via the  Microsoft Windows 8 store. This is the same way that Apple operates with the IPad.

But you will be able to install programs onto x86/64 tablets running Windows 8, just as you can now with Windows 7. and every previous version of windows.

I am a developer. I write programs for Windows and have been doing this since Windows 3. Before that I wrote programs for DOS. Do I care that I can’t copy programs to ARM devices. Not a bit. I will be able to write the programs, but the deployment will be different.

I will tell you a story about life at home. Up until 12 months ago our computer set-up at home was this. I develop on a desktop running Windows 7. It is networked to another desktop running Windows 7 which serves as a continuous integraton build server. So these two pcs are business pcs, mostly. although my main desktop is also my home computer. I have a laptop which is networked to the two desktops. My wife had a laptop, which was running Windows XP and was also networked so that she could access one of the external drives that contains photos, among other things.

At the beginning of last year my wife’s laptop died. She used my laptop while we were deciding what to replace hers with. After using my son’s IPad for a while she decided that she also would like an iPad.

If this were to happen later this year I would suggest that she get an ARM tablet with Windows 8 instead. Why? Because of what she does with it. She uses the internet – browsing and email. She uses Word. She uses Skype. And she uses the iPad to show photos of grandchildren to friends and family. Until earlier this week, one of my sons and his wife and two children lived in Germany. The iPad eventually got Skype, and it is great for photos.

But is is not good at a few things. Connecting a printer was a problem. We now have it set up but it was a kludge. Connecting to networked devices like the external drive is also a problem. Email on the iPad is different to what she was used to.

But the biggest problem is that my wife knows little about getting her iPad, pc, or whatever device she has, working if there is a problem. She has never had to learn. If you are a developer, or do any work with computers, you know that you become the HelpDesk for family. I have had to sort out everything that went wrong. And I know nothing about Apple stuff. But I do know Windows.

But what about installing applications. I don’t know how many applications I have written. Many for clients, and a number for myself. But I have never written an application that I have installed on my wife’s laptop. She doesn’t use them.

Our future computing environment at home is likely to be this. I will maintain my two desktops, upgraded when required. My laptop, which also died and has been replaced, will be replaced by an Intel x64 tablet/hybrid, perhaps something like the announced Lenovo Yoga. My wife will use an ARM tablet running Windows 8.

How much of an inroad will Microsoft make into the tablet market? I have no idea. Apple is firmly entrenched. But Microsoft is the established leader in the enterprise. People who use Windows at work go home at night and I think that, if Windows 8 is any good, and I think that it is looking very good, they might prefer to use something at home that they are used to.

My prediction – Windows 9 will have a large share of the market, assuming Windows 8 is well received.

In any event, Windows 8 is a good thing. If it is successful then Apple and Android will have to take notice. If it fails then Microsoft will have to work harder.

Finally, Windows 8 on ARM is also a good thing. Intel and AMD will have to respond, and the indications are that they are doing that now. Consumer devices can onlyl get better.